Let's make up some numbers for the purpose of discussion. Assume Heartland ships 25,000 units per year with Towmax tires. Forget the spares and the triple axle trailers. Let's keep it simple and say that 25,000 units = 100,000 tires. Four years of production = 400,000 tires.
If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say there might be 100 people on this forum who have reported Towmax blowouts on Heartland trailers over the past 2-3 years that I've been watching the forum. But let's bump that up to 200 just to be conservative. Now on average, I'll guess that each of those people probably posts about their experience at least 6 times. So we probably have seen upwards of 1200 posts from those 200 people. But 1200 posts is still 200 blowouts.
Let's further guess that for every person who posts to the forum, there are another three who don't report their blowout. I have no idea if that's the ratio, but let's run with it. So for 200 blowouts reported, let's assume 600 not reported.
So that's 800 trailers assumed to have experience blowouts over the past few years. A few had multiple blowouts, so let's round it up to 1000 tire failures.
Let me further guess that at least 1/2 of those failures were caused by under-inflation, overloading, driving too fast, or hitting curbs. So we're back to 500 tire failures out of 100,000 that we attribute to tire quality.
That would be a 0.5% failure rate over a period of several years. If you have 4 tires, you'd have a 2% risk of a blowout over a period of several years. 1 out of 50 trailers having a blowout over a period of several years.
We have a high noise level on this subject because it's a traumatic event that results in a lot of damage to the trailer. Owners are understandably upset.
Are other tires really so much better? I wonder if the reason Maxxis and other choices seem to work so well is that we're judging from a much smaller sample. I wonder what the story would be if Heartland had 100,000 Maxxis in use.
Now I admit that this is all speculative. Maybe the failure rate is higher. But to read the posts, you'd think the failure rate approaches 100%. If that were the case we'd be seeing multiple posts about new blowouts every day. Week after week. That's not happening.